Soto, 26, is hands down this winter’s most highly sought-after free agent, valued as much for his elite baseball skills as for his birth date.
And his workplace choice could very well tip the balance of MLB power for years.
If he stays with the Yankees, the defending American League champions, or ventures to Los Angeles to join the World Series-winning Dodgers, Soto might cement those big-market, star-laden clubs as perennial October players.
He could also land with recent playoff contenders like the New York Mets or his onetime employer the San Diego Padres and push them closer to the very top.
Or he might opt for a larger club desperately seeking to regain relevance, such as the Boston Red Sox, the Toronto Blue Jays or the San Francisco Giants.
Soto blasted a career-high 41 home runs this season to go along with 109 RBIs, fourth and sixth most, respectively, in those two traditional MLB categories.
He is also one of the most disciplined and patient hitters in baseball, drawing walks in 18.1% of his plate appearances, compared with the overall MLB rate of 8.4%, in 2024. And in an age of swing-for-the-fences baseball, Soto struck out just 16.7% of the time, while the league whiffed at a 22.2% clip this season.
The stars are aligned for a “long, massive bid out” among baseball’s richest clubs, MLB Network analyst and former pitcher Al Leiter said.
“Can you imagine how perfect the world is when you have the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays all vying for your client’s services?” Leiter said Tuesday. “Yeah, thank you, thank you universe.”
It’s expected that the Soto Sweepstakes will be won by a club shelling out at least $600 million over 10 years.
Such a contract would, at first glance, fall short of the 10-year, $700 million deal that took worldwide superstar Shohei Ohtani across Southern California to the Los Angeles Dodgers. But Soto’s new agreement, even if it comes in south of the $700 million mark, could be considered equal to or greater than Ohtani’s.
That’s because Ohtani, the Dodgers DH and pitcher, is making a paltry $2 million per season over the next 10 years. He will make $68 million annually in deferred payments in years 11 through 20, however, greatly diminishing his actual take-home pay.
Soto, represented by hard-driving super agent Scott Boras, has shown no indication of offering charity to his new employer like Ohtani did.
Free agency is “going to be exciting,” Soto told reporters moments after the Yankees lost Game 5 of the World Series, ending the baseball season. “It’s going to be a good experience. I think every player in the big league wants to experience this. So it’s exciting to see how it’s going to be.”
Soto just turned 26 late last month, putting him in prime-of-his-career position to cash in on the open market.
Players have to log six years of MLB service time before they are allowed to fully test free agency. Those half-dozen years of club control, at less-than-free-market salaries, act as a slight disincentive to sign free agents who might be approaching or already past their athletic peaks at around age 30.
Ohtani, 30, is the odds-on favorite to be named NL MVP, while Soto’s New York teammate Aaron Judge, 32, is expected to be the AL’s top honoree.
Teams that do sign high-priced older free agents go into it knowing they’ll be overpaying for aging, less-than-productive stars on the back end. If Soto remains healthy, though, he should have several more monster seasons that could take the sting out of any late-career slide.
Philadelphia Phillies star Bryce Harper signed a 13-year, $330 million contract in early 2019 in what was a record deal at the time. The Phillies paid him a premium because he was just 26.
Harper, now 32 and entering his seventh season in South Philly, is still one of baseball’s elite performers. He hit 30 home runs last year and had a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) value of 5.2, 20th best among 1,454 MLB players, according to FanGraphs.
Soto, who went to the Yankees from San Diego in a trade 11 months ago, said he has enjoyed playing in New York, but he stopped well short of committing to the Big Apple.
“I’m really happy with the city, with the team, but at the end of the day we will see,” he said.
And this season proved what should be obvious: Large payrolls are a near-necessity for success.
The AL champion Yankees had the second-highest MLB payroll, at $309.8 million for their 40-man roster, according to Baseball Prospectus.
The NL runners-up Mets were No. 1 at $341.8 million, while the World Series champion Dodgers spent $288.8 million with a deceptively low No. 3 ranking because of Ohtani’s sweetheart deal.
The Cleveland Guardians were MLB’s only low-spending final four team, with the No. 23 payroll of $106.2 million.
There’s no telling when Soto or other any free agents will come to terms with their 2025 teams.
The Dodgers announced their signing of Ohtani on Dec. 11, while the San Francisco Giants didn’t pick up Cy Young Award-winning pitcher Blake Snell until March 19, less than two weeks before Opening Day.
And who makes Soto’s announcement holds even more intrigue.
“We’re going to look at every situation, every offer that we get,” Soto said. “I don’t know what teams want to come after me, but definitely I’ll be open to listen to every single team. I don’t have any doors closed or anything like that, so we’re going to be available for all 30 teams.
